Limits of US Influence: the Promotion of Regime Change in Latin America

Scholars often assume that as a global superpower, the United States has had great influence and impact on political regime developments in the world. This article critically examines these claims, focusing on Latin America; by investigating the region most directly dominated by the US, it employs a most-likely-case design. The experiences of countries such as Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela show that US influence has been fairly limited for many years and has diminished over time. The Northern superpower has been less involved and has had less impact on regime developments than often postulated, as the analysis of the coups in Brazil in 1964 and Chile in 1973 demonstrates. Moreover, nations to which the US has maintained close, comprehensive linkages, such as Venezuela, have slid into “competitive authoritarianism” while a country such as Haiti, over which the US holds great leverage, has failed to establish a functioning democracy. Thus, even in its direct sphere of interest, the most powerful nation in the contemporary world seems to be limited in its capacity to promote or prevent political regime change.Muchos investigadores asumen que, como superpotencia global, los Estados Unidos han tenido una gran influencia y un fuerte impacto sobre los cambios de régimen político en el mundo. El presente artículo hace una evaluación crítica de estos argumentos, concentrándose en el caso latinoamericano. Investigando la región dominada más directamente por los EUA, el artículo utiliza un diseño de "caso más probable". Las experiencias de países como Brasil, Chile, Haití, Nicaragua y Venezuela muestran que, desde hace muchos años, la influencia de EUA ha sido relativamente limitada y que ha disminuido a lo largo del tiempo. La superpotencia del Norte se ha involucrado menos y ha tenido un menor impacto sobre los cambios de régimen que el que muchos observadores postulan, como demuestra el análisis de los golpes militares en Brasil en 1964 y en Chile en 1973. Además, naciones que han mantenido conexiones densas y extensas con los EUA, como por ejemplo Venezuela, han descendido hacia un "autoritarismo competitivo", mientras que un país como Haití, sobre el cual los EUA tienen un enorme poder de presión, ha fallado en el esfuerzo de establecer una democracia que funcione apropiadamente. En conclusión, aun en su esfera de influencia directa, el país más poderoso en el mundo contemporáneo parece enfrentar limitaciones en su capacidad de promover o prevenir cambios del régimen político

Realism under hegemony: theorizing the rise of Brazil

Como o campo de Teoria das Relações Internacionais pode contribuir para o entendimento acerca de processos através dos quais países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, atingem uma posição de liderança regional e significativa influência internacional? A análise que se segue propõe que a perspectiva Realista explica a estratégia internacional da Politica Externa Brasileira durante as últimas décadas de maneira mais clara e convincente quando comparada às abordagens Liberal-institucionalista e Construtivista. A despeito das mudanças de governo e regimes políticos, a PEB vem se caracterizando pela busca persistente de vantagens políticas relativas, especialmente no que tange à ascendência internacional do país. Entretanto, a presença de um poder hegemônico no continente, os Estados Unidos, desafia a capacidade brasileira de utilizar os instrumentos e as táticas convencionais do Realismo (confronto politico-militar), motivando a preferência pela cooperação econômica nas suas relações tanto com tal poder hegemônico, quanto com os vizinhos mais frágeis. Portanto, é através da cooperação como estratégia de inserção internacional que o Brasil busca obter vantagens comparativas, contribuindo para o aumento de seu poder relativo. Por meio da elucidação destes cálculos complexos, o artigo apresenta como a abordagem Realista explica as possibilidades, limites e preferências de nações ambiciosas como o Brasil para perseguir os seus interesses em Politica Externa. Ao mesmo tempo, o artigo contribui para a elaboração de uma versão da teoria Realista que apreende as recentes dinâmicas de poder no sistema internacional.What light can international relations theory shed on how developing countries such as Brazil have achieved regional leadership and international influence? This comprehensive examination of Brazilian foreign policy over the last few decades argues that Realism provides a better account of Brazil's strategy than Liberalism and Constructivism. Despite changes of government and regime, Brasília has persistently pursued relative political gain, especially international influence. However, because this rising country has faced an established hegemon in the form of the United States, it has not been able to employ conventionally Realist instruments and tactics. Its subordinate position in the current power constellation has forced Brazil to forego political or military confrontation and instead use economic cooperation, both with the hegemon and its weaker neighbors. Through this collaboration, Brazil hopes to derive disproportionate benefits that will enhance its relative power. By elucidating these complex calculations, the present essay explains the Realist strategy that ambitious nations such as Brazil have pursued and helps design a version of Realism that captures recent power dynamics in the international system

Institutional change in Latin America: external models and their unintended consequences

Influential theories claim that institutions shape actor behavior but are sustained by these actors’ behavior. How do scholars escape from this trap of endogeneity? This article highlights a partially exogenous factor: institutional models and blueprints. Since these ideational schemes do not emerge from actor preferences, they play an independent, irreducible role in institutional creation. In fact, Latin America has borrowed many blueprints from the «First World». But transferred to a different setting, these imported models often fail to command firm, reliable compliance and do not operate well. Therefore, informal mechanisms arise and guide behavior. External borrowing thus produces persistent disjunctures in institutional development.Influyentes teorías aseguran que las instituciones moldean el comportamiento de los actores, pero están fundamentadas en el comportamiento de estos mismos actores. ¿Cómo evitan los académicos esta trampa de endogeneidad? Este artículo resalta la relevancia de un factor parcialmente exógeno: los modelos institucionales y sus diseños. Dado que estos esquemas conceptuales no emergen de las preferencias de los actores, juegan un papel independiente, irreducible en la creación institucional. De hecho, América Latina ha tomado prestados muchos diseños del «Primer Mundo». Sin embargo, una vez importados a un escenario distinto, estos modelos frecuentemente fracasan a la hora de garantizar un cumplimiento confiable y firme, por lo que no operan bien. Así, aparecen mecanismos informales que guían el comportamiento de los actores. El préstamo externo produce, de esta manera, fracturas persistentes en el desarrollo institucional

Why and how do political actors pursue risky welfare state reforms?

Why and how do political actors pursue risky welfare state reforms, in spite of the institutional mechanisms and political resistance that counteract change? This is one of the key puzzles of contemporary welfare state research, which is brought about by the absence of a complete account that identifies both the cause and causal mechanisms of risky reforms. In this article we offer a remedy for this lacuna. Prospect theory teaches us that political actors will only undertake risky reforms if they consider themselves to be in a losses domain, that is when their current situation is unacceptable. Next, we discuss the strategies that political actors use to avoid the blame associated with risky reforms. These provide the causal mechanisms linking cause and effect. The sudden outburst of risky reforms in formerly 'immovable' Italy provides an empirical illustration of our account. Copyright © 2007 Sage Publications

Cidadania mediada : processos de democratização da política municipal no Brasil

This article discusses the notion that the persistence of &ldquo;traditional&rdquo; political practices weakens Brazil&rsquo;s democracy.Drawing on the cases of three Brazilian municipalities administered by the Workers&rsquo; Party (PT), the author examines the space between &ldquo;traditional&rdquo; and &ldquo;modern&rdquo; and argues that successful democratization does not eradicate practices such as clientelism and patronage, but it tends to incorporate and build on these traditional political elements. Moreover, the article maintains that the democratization of municipal politics is inextricably bound up with the eradication of poverty and the construction of a responsive, state-based social safety net.<br /

Distributive Politics and Social Protection in the 21st Century

The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.Dramatic economic and demographic transitions have prompted societies around the world to renegotiate the social bargains underpinning national social protection systems. In the process, social welfare reforms have laid bare deep fault lines of distributive conflict, cleaving societies across generations, income levels, and risk groups. Although considerable scholarly attention has been paid to the distinctive contours of these reforms, much of this inquiry remains bound within regional or national lines. As a step toward bridging these empirical and theoretical gaps, this workshop will bring together scholars engaged in research on social protection and distributive conflict in diverse regions of the world, from Latin America to Europe and Asia. Questions addressed in the workshop will include efforts to understand the longer-term implications of social welfare transformations, while asking what changes in social welfare spending, structure and function will imply for longer-term distributions of political and economic resources, risk and life chances. Lastly, participants in the workshop will ask how the shift of risks from collective social insurance programs to individuals affect social cohesion, and democratic stability.Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security StudiesEvent webpage, handou